Trump Leads Prediction Markets Ahead of Election Day

With just one day left before the US presidential election, prediction markets indicate a slight advantage for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris.

Current Odds on Prediction Markets

• Polymarket reports a probability of approximately 58% for Trump and 42% for Harris, leading in open interest.
• Drift Protocol’s BET platform, which operates on the Solana blockchain, shows a 61% chance for Trump as of 11 am ET today, with a daily trading volume of $20 million.

Betting Activity Across Platforms

• Betfair Exchange, a UK-based betting platform, has recorded total bets amounting to 136 million pounds (around $176 million).
• In the United States, Kalshi, a recently legalized event futures exchange, has seen over $12 million in user bets since its inception.
• PredictIt shows a close race between the candidates, maintaining a significant user base, although specific open interest figures are not disclosed.

New Betting Options for US Citizens

• Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have joined Kalshi, offering election outcome trading after winning a ruling against the CFTC.
• Interactive Brokers has reported over a million contracts traded since launching its market on October 3, while Robinhood's open interest data remains unavailable.

Stay Informed with Crypto Insights

• Start your day with the latest insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

• Explore the intersection of crypto, macroeconomics, policy, and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner, and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.

• Get market highlights and updates with the 0xResearch newsletter.

• For daily Solana news, subscribe to the Lightspeed newsletter from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.